With the clock winding down to President Barack Obama Space Summit in Florida next week, it appears that a compromise may be emerging of the future of American spaceflight, according to Keith Cowing at NASA Watch.
"The consensus that seems to forming in and among NASA, OSTP, and NSC: Ares 1 and 5 remain cancelled. Orion is continued - but in a "Lite" variant designed to ferry people to and from ISS. This "Orion Lite" would fly on human-rated EELVs and would be, in essence, a government competitor to what NASA is also encouraging the so-called "Merchant 7" (SpaceX, Orbital Sciences Corp et al) to develop. The commercial activities would remain unchanged from what was announced in February. Meanwhile, NASA will continue to fly the Space Shuttle albeit at a stretched out rate (2 or so flights/year) while ET [External Tank] production is restarted," Cowing reports but seemingly running contrary to a BBC report interview with NASA Administrator Charles Bolden.
"In addition to closing the "gap" for American human spaceflight, stretched out Space Shuttle operations will allow a rapid implementation of a Shuttle-C ("Sidemount") HLV to be developed. This Shuttle-C HLV will carry cargo, but no crew. The Shuttle-C will be a direct upgrade to the existing Space Shuttle Orbiter system with only the Orbiter replaced with engines and a cargo carrier."
"While keeping Orion alive, NASA will also seek to develop a human-rated exploration spacecraft that only operates in space. The initial version will likely use unused ISS modules (enhanced MPLMs, Node X, Hab Module, ISS ECLSS) and Constellation systems. Its component parts would be launched by the Shuttle/Shuttle-C. The exploration vehicle will be assembled on-orbit at the ISS. This exploration spacecraft will be a pathfinder for more complex systems that will be able to traverse cis-lunar space on a regular basis," notes the NASA Watch report.
The Mars Society indicates that there may be a presidential directive to explore a nearby NEO asteroid by 2016 saying "the combination of an Orion-lite, an HLV, and a hab module represents all the hardware needed for the US to undertake a piloted NEA exploration missions, [Plymouth Rock] and about half the hardware set needed to send astronauts to the Moon and Mars as well."
What new role international space partnership may evolve from the White House will require more immediate domestic decisions. In the short term, Russia, Japan and Europe will assist in station cargo supplies.
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