Our human ability to predict an earthquake is about as long as it takes to scream the word "earthquake!" to electronic media or in the seconds to hit the switch of the emergency alert siren song prior to a ceiling dropping rattle.
The recent 9.0 magnitude earthquake rapture in Japan highlights the need for geologists and space scientists to begin to collaborate on new methods to predict seismic events and their relationships, if any, among the Earth's upper atmospheric ionosphere, solar sun spot flares, the moon on tidal water movements and their impact on the Earth's tectonic plates. If humanity is to modify the dangers associated with the cataclysmic earthquake events, we must identify the precursor signals.
Governments around the globe have invested billions of dollars in ground-based seismic systems associated with the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites to measure earthquakes that move up and down and from side-to-side, sometimes with deadly force, and too frequently followed by tsunamis and volcanoes. The technology systems can provide people a little over a minute advanced warning for those hundreds of miles from the epicenter of a quake. The closer to the epicenter the less time there is for human warning.
Prior to space-based weather satellites, humanity had little to no warning of major weather events. Meteorology and the science of weather prediction have vastly improved in the last fifty years of the Space Age, as best evidenced with a click of a computer to see weather predictions anywhere on Earth, several days in advance. Earthquake prediction, on the other hand, remains in the Dark Ages of human capability changing too little over the past 250-years of scientific study.
There are growing bodies of pseudoscience and mainstream science seeking to address earthquake prediction and forecasting. The challenges faced by the two approaches are intellectually and challenging. Heralding the next great earthquake is an unknown thus far in the 21st century.
Largely rejected by mainstream scientists, pseudo-scientists are building elaborate hypothetical models and theories that relate to the sun, the moon and atmospheric conditions to create mathematical scenarios on which to seek to predict earthquake times and locations. Known as astrotometry, a New Age techno-shaman seeks to quantify movement of the sun, moon and other planets as some sort of energy flux-transfer resulting in earth tectonic plate movements. It appears to be a blend of astrology with traditional astronomy and space weather.
On the other hand, there is a body of peer-reviewed science providing evidence of abrupt disturbances of the Earth's ionosphere may be one precursor to earthquake events. There are international academic research papers statistically linking solar flares with the high altitude atmospheric disturbances but they are far short of complete understanding. For example, following one hundred years of research of the Aurora Borealis, humanity lacks full understanding of these reoccurring natural phenomena.
To begin to address the shortfall of earthquake and volcanic forecasting science, British and Russian scientists signed an agreement in February to collaborate on the building and launching in 2015 two orbiting satellites called the Twin-Sat Project. The two planned satellites aim to investigate precursors to earthquake tremors and volcanic eruptions through the effects of the upper atmosphere correlated with ground-based observations.
The Twin-Sat Project satellites will be looking for detectable electromagnetic signals resulting from stress build up inside the Earth, slight changes in the Earth's magnetism that could be signs that earthquake tremors are significantly imminent. In the days leading up to the January 2010 Haiti 7.0 magnitude earthquake, magnetic signals were observed in the upper ionosphere above the region.
This kind of new and unique research may begin to provide an epiphany to our understanding of the interactions of the Earth's upper atmosphere to the subsurface movements of earthquakes. The linkage theory between the ionosphere and magnetic interactions is very immature and requires substantial scientific efforts be cast over the decades ahead if humanity is to have some depth of scientific understanding. An associated event can also be an erupting, lightening-spewing volcano ash plume also suggesting magnetic forces at work. Knowledge is very limited on this particular phenomenon as well.
The question confronting the science community is whether an accurate, reliable forecast of large seismic quakes is a realistic goal in the 21st century. Recent observations of earthquake and volcanic activity have shown that events tend to be localized in space, primarily on Earth's tectonic plate boundaries, and appear to be clustered in time more than would be expected for a random process. Nonetheless, the challenge of identification of earthquake event variables and associated precursors will be a monumental challenge, at least in the short-term.
The development of reliable earthquake precursors is a laudable goal of modern science. There are so many possible variables relating to Earth's internal stresses, magnetism, and their relationships to solar activity and lunar tidal forces: how each may contribute to earthquakes is an unknown. The road ahead in this scientific inquiry will be hard. The joint-effort between the British and Russians is a start worthy of greater international cooperation to advance earthquake prediction past the Dark Ages.
In his 1759 Candide novel, French philosopher Voltaire noted, the idea that science cannot predict everything is not new; it dates back to the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake, which shattered contemporary European belief in a benign, predictable Universe in the Age of Reason. As the first earthquake studied scientifically for its effects over a large area, the Lisbon quake ushered forth-modern seismology and earthquake engineering.
Over two-hundred and fifty years later, humanity confronts the 2011 Great Japanese earthquake, which shattered modern atomic energy to meltdown and now threatens a renowned national economic tsunami. We face again the same premise: global science cannot predict everything, even one of the most destructive and deadliest earthquakes in the 21st century Age of Information.
Another 7 to 9--magnitude Richter scale earthquake is unequivocally certain; these natural high magnitude events happen around the globe on a two-week average, too frequently killing thousands. Yet, it is very uncertain humanity will outwit the next or the next thereafter with meaningful prediction.
As humanity, we must be determined to seek a larger view and more meaningful focus to understand this too common oddity of nature. We must seek to use the array of new scientific tools of post modernity if we are to avoid history continually repeating itself, with the same catastrophic results, over-and-over. A reliable 24-to-72 hour earthquake forecast could save thousands of lives and billions in damages giving greater significance to several areas of science.
The recent 9.0 magnitude earthquake rapture in Japan highlights the need for geologists and space scientists to begin to collaborate on new methods to predict seismic events and their relationships, if any, among the Earth's upper atmospheric ionosphere, solar sun spot flares, the moon on tidal water movements and their impact on the Earth's tectonic plates. If humanity is to modify the dangers associated with the cataclysmic earthquake events, we must identify the precursor signals.
Governments around the globe have invested billions of dollars in ground-based seismic systems associated with the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites to measure earthquakes that move up and down and from side-to-side, sometimes with deadly force, and too frequently followed by tsunamis and volcanoes. The technology systems can provide people a little over a minute advanced warning for those hundreds of miles from the epicenter of a quake. The closer to the epicenter the less time there is for human warning.
Prior to space-based weather satellites, humanity had little to no warning of major weather events. Meteorology and the science of weather prediction have vastly improved in the last fifty years of the Space Age, as best evidenced with a click of a computer to see weather predictions anywhere on Earth, several days in advance. Earthquake prediction, on the other hand, remains in the Dark Ages of human capability changing too little over the past 250-years of scientific study.
There are growing bodies of pseudoscience and mainstream science seeking to address earthquake prediction and forecasting. The challenges faced by the two approaches are intellectually and challenging. Heralding the next great earthquake is an unknown thus far in the 21st century.
Largely rejected by mainstream scientists, pseudo-scientists are building elaborate hypothetical models and theories that relate to the sun, the moon and atmospheric conditions to create mathematical scenarios on which to seek to predict earthquake times and locations. Known as astrotometry, a New Age techno-shaman seeks to quantify movement of the sun, moon and other planets as some sort of energy flux-transfer resulting in earth tectonic plate movements. It appears to be a blend of astrology with traditional astronomy and space weather.
On the other hand, there is a body of peer-reviewed science providing evidence of abrupt disturbances of the Earth's ionosphere may be one precursor to earthquake events. There are international academic research papers statistically linking solar flares with the high altitude atmospheric disturbances but they are far short of complete understanding. For example, following one hundred years of research of the Aurora Borealis, humanity lacks full understanding of these reoccurring natural phenomena.
To begin to address the shortfall of earthquake and volcanic forecasting science, British and Russian scientists signed an agreement in February to collaborate on the building and launching in 2015 two orbiting satellites called the Twin-Sat Project. The two planned satellites aim to investigate precursors to earthquake tremors and volcanic eruptions through the effects of the upper atmosphere correlated with ground-based observations.
The Twin-Sat Project satellites will be looking for detectable electromagnetic signals resulting from stress build up inside the Earth, slight changes in the Earth's magnetism that could be signs that earthquake tremors are significantly imminent. In the days leading up to the January 2010 Haiti 7.0 magnitude earthquake, magnetic signals were observed in the upper ionosphere above the region.
This kind of new and unique research may begin to provide an epiphany to our understanding of the interactions of the Earth's upper atmosphere to the subsurface movements of earthquakes. The linkage theory between the ionosphere and magnetic interactions is very immature and requires substantial scientific efforts be cast over the decades ahead if humanity is to have some depth of scientific understanding. An associated event can also be an erupting, lightening-spewing volcano ash plume also suggesting magnetic forces at work. Knowledge is very limited on this particular phenomenon as well.
The question confronting the science community is whether an accurate, reliable forecast of large seismic quakes is a realistic goal in the 21st century. Recent observations of earthquake and volcanic activity have shown that events tend to be localized in space, primarily on Earth's tectonic plate boundaries, and appear to be clustered in time more than would be expected for a random process. Nonetheless, the challenge of identification of earthquake event variables and associated precursors will be a monumental challenge, at least in the short-term.
The development of reliable earthquake precursors is a laudable goal of modern science. There are so many possible variables relating to Earth's internal stresses, magnetism, and their relationships to solar activity and lunar tidal forces: how each may contribute to earthquakes is an unknown. The road ahead in this scientific inquiry will be hard. The joint-effort between the British and Russians is a start worthy of greater international cooperation to advance earthquake prediction past the Dark Ages.
In his 1759 Candide novel, French philosopher Voltaire noted, the idea that science cannot predict everything is not new; it dates back to the 1755 Great Lisbon earthquake, which shattered contemporary European belief in a benign, predictable Universe in the Age of Reason. As the first earthquake studied scientifically for its effects over a large area, the Lisbon quake ushered forth-modern seismology and earthquake engineering.
Over two-hundred and fifty years later, humanity confronts the 2011 Great Japanese earthquake, which shattered modern atomic energy to meltdown and now threatens a renowned national economic tsunami. We face again the same premise: global science cannot predict everything, even one of the most destructive and deadliest earthquakes in the 21st century Age of Information.
Another 7 to 9--magnitude Richter scale earthquake is unequivocally certain; these natural high magnitude events happen around the globe on a two-week average, too frequently killing thousands. Yet, it is very uncertain humanity will outwit the next or the next thereafter with meaningful prediction.
As humanity, we must be determined to seek a larger view and more meaningful focus to understand this too common oddity of nature. We must seek to use the array of new scientific tools of post modernity if we are to avoid history continually repeating itself, with the same catastrophic results, over-and-over. A reliable 24-to-72 hour earthquake forecast could save thousands of lives and billions in damages giving greater significance to several areas of science.
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